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三泰虎

中国人均GDP未来20年内能赶超韩国吗

Will China catch up with South Korea in GDP per capita within 20 years?

中国人均GDP在未来20年内能赶超韩国吗?

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QUORA网站读者评论:

Martin Andrews, Asian analyst.

Impossible:

Firstly lets get this straight, South Korea is not like Japan, its economy is not stagnant and is somewhat inter-depended on the Chinese economy.

While China will continue to grow faster than South Korea for many years to come, South Korea stills grows at 2.5%+ per annum and is likely to grow at that rate for many years to come.

The South Korea-China trade is very strong and is likely to grow stronger as the years go by, thus as China grows Korea will grow as well.

China’s massive population will ensure that its PPP Per Capita as a whole remains substantially bellow that of S. Korea.

This is not to say that parts of China won’t catch up, infact some cities already have a PPP Per Capita comparable to S. Korea (Shenzhen and Hong Kong), the other tier 1 cities will follow.

不可能:

首先我们得搞清楚,韩国不像日本,经济并未停滞不前,而且在某种程度上依赖于中国经济。

虽然在未来许多年,中国的经济增速仍将超过韩国,但韩国的经济增速仍将保持在每年2.5%以上,而且很可能在未来许多年维持这一增速。

中韩贸易非常强劲,而且可能会随着时间的推移而增长,因此随着中国的增长,韩国也会增长。

中国庞大的人口将使其人均购买力平价?#28304;?#22823;低于韩国。

这并不是说中国的部分地区无法迎头赶上,事实上,有一些城市的人均购买力平价已经可以与韩国(深圳和香港)相媲美,其他一线城市也将紧随其后。

 

Glenn Luk, Invests in China

Barring war or some enormous massive disaster befalling South Korea, no they won't.

There is only one scenario where I can see them getting close and that is if the Koreas decide to re-unite. Today, a hypothetical combined Korea would have 75 million people and per capita GDP (PPP adjusted) of around $23k [1]. China today has a per capita GDP of around $11k. If China grows at 6% real and the combined Korea at 2%, my friend Math says they reach parity in 20 years.

But this is also a very, very low probability scenario within a 20-year window. The two Koreas have diverged so much the costs of reunification would be enormous.

除非韩国发生战争或重大灾难,否则不可能。

我认为只有一种情况,那就是朝鲜半岛重新统一。今天,如果南北朝鲜统一,总人口达到7500万,人均GDP(经购买力平价调整后)约为23000美元。今天的中国人均GDP约为11000美元。我的朋友Math说,如果中国的实际增长率为6%,而韩国的综合增长率为2%,那么两国将在20年后达到同?#20154;?#24179;。

但在20年内,这种可能性还是非常非常低。朝韩两国分歧太大,统一的代价将非常巨大。

 

Lee Szi Kiat

Honestly? It is very, very hard to say. While the answers above are reasonable, I somehow do disagree, with respect of course.

It seems to me that most of us, which is entirely human nature, to extrapolate indefinitely in the future, which is where we get all the "China surpassing USA" data. It might happen, OR it might not happen. It is set more than a decade into the future, we don't know.

Can you tell me what would happen tomorrow? An earthquake? A lottery win? Constipation? No.

My point is, China is growing reasonably fast now, but it may not be so in the future. When it reaches the point of maturity, which is now, it will slow down, as you can see now.. Much more of a probability then China never going through a recession. Growth rates will slow, everything will normalize. It is pointless to make judgements based on today's performance, because it might change tomorrow or even the next second.

译文来源:三泰虎           译者:Joyceliu

老实说?这很难。虽然上面的答案看着都很合理,但我还是无法认同,当然了,我没有不敬之意。

在我看来,我们大多数人,完全?#24378;?#30528;人类的天性不确定地推断未来,这就是我们会得出“中国将赶超美国”的数据的原因。这可能发生,?#37096;?#33021;不会发生。它是未来十多年以后的事,我们不知道。

你能告诉我明天会发生什么吗?会地震吗?会中彩票吗?会便秘吗?不可能的。

我的观点是,中国目前的增长相当快,但未来可能不会依然如此。当它达到巅峰的时候,也就是现在,它就会慢下来,正如你现在看到的。更有可能的是,中国从未经历过经济衰退。经济增长会放缓,一切都会正常化。根据今天的表现做判断是没有意义的,因为明天甚至下一秒可能就会发生改变。

The best way we can predict, in my opinion, is that we look at data that contributes to the future. Such as demographics, which are absolutely essential (as shown in the case of Japan), investments in R&D and so on.

I feel that China has too large of a population to satisfy all of its citizens needs. So to me, no, China might not be able to catch up to South Korea in per capita in 20 years or longer, accounting to the fact of inevitable negative shocks, ie. falling growth, recessions, demographics.

在我看来,我们能预测的最好方法,就是看看那些对未来有帮助的数据。例如人口统计数据,这是绝?#21592;?#35201;的(如日本的情况所示),对研发的投?#23454;?#31561;。

我觉得中国人口太多,不能满足所有公民的需要。因此,对我来说,不,中国的人均水平可能无法在20年或更长时间内赶上韩国,原因就是负面的冲击,比如增长率下降,衰退,人口数据。

 

Darrell Francis, lived in South Korea

It depends on how you measure GDP. If you're using nominal GDP, it will be virtually impossible for China to catch-up with South Korea in 20 years. For China to reach the same level of GDP per capita as South Korea has today in 20 years, GDP per capita would need to grow by at least 10% every year. To match South Korea in 20 years would require greater sustained growth than China has ever seen.

If you're using real GDP, the goal of surpassing South Korea becomes a little less daunting. For China's GDP per capita in 20 years to match South Korea's current GDP per capita, it would only require 6% annual growth, which is high, but possible. China's ability to surpass South Korea would then depend on how much South Korea grows over the next 20 years. Given that South Korea's GDP per capita is still growing at over 4% annually, this will be a challenge.

Competition from China is unlikely to greatly diminish the South Korean economy. The growing economy of China means the opening up of a massive consumer market which is a major opportunity for both China and South Korea. There may be more Chinese products on the market, but the market will also be much larger.

这取决于你如何计算GDP。如果你?#21592;?#30340;是名义GDP,中国在20年内?#36127;?#19981;可能赶上韩国。中国要想达到韩国20年后人均GDP的水平,人均GDP每年至少需要增长10%。想在20年内赶上韩国,中国需要比以往任何时候都维持更高的增长。

如果你?#21592;?#26159;实际GDP,超过韩国的目标就没有那么困难了。中国的人均GDP要在20年内赶上韩国目前的人均GDP,只需保持6%的年增长率就可以了,这虽然很高,但还是可能的。届?#20445;?#20013;国能否超越韩国就取决于韩国未来20年的经济增长速度。鉴于韩国的人均GDP仍以每年4%以上的速度增长,这会?#19988;?#20010;挑战。

来自中国的竞争不太可能大幅削弱韩国经济。中国经济的增长意味着一个巨大的消费市场的开放,这对中国和韩国来说?#38469;且?#20010;重大的机遇。市场上可能会有更多的中国产品,但市场容量也会大得多。

 

Anonymous

This is not a question that can be answered by any linear interpolation on economic factors. This is a political question. Whatever Korean can do, Chinese can do it, and do it better. Therefore, China can have a GDP per capita higher than South Korea, but US will try its best to put China down. For instance, US may push Chinese companies who deliver exactly the same or higher quality products compare to Korean competitors out of every markets it has influence on (However, the only reason US is interested in doing this is because these Korean companies are in many ways owned by American investors) What the result would be is purely a political question instead of an economic one.

这不?#19988;?#20010;可以用经济因素来回答的问题。这?#19988;?#20010;政治问题。无论韩国人能做什么,中国人都能做,而且做得更好。因此,中国的人均GDP可以高于韩国,但美国将尽其所能打压中国。例如,美国可能会逼迫中国企业在所有国家提供跟韩国竞争对?#28382;?#20840;相同或更高质量的产品(然而,美国会感兴趣这么做的唯一原因?#19988;?#20026;这些韩国公司在许多方面都是属于美国投资者的),这么做的结果会是?#30475;?#30340;政治问题,而非经济问题。

 

Karen Ip, studied at University of Melbourne

Within 20 years? Definitely no.

1.No matter how much China will and has achieved, whenever you have to divide that amount into 1.4 billion, it will not be a huge number.

2.The last recorded GDP per capita for Korea is USD26,152.03 in Y2017, whilst China is USD7329.09. South Korea is 3.56 times of GDP per capita of China.

3.In Y2012, the Chinese government announced their target of doubling their GDP per capita based on GDP per capita in Y2010 (which is USD4,560.51) in Y2020. (That is, To reach USD9,121.02 per capita).

4.Assuming Y2038 is the 20 years deadline, and China is able to double her GDP per capita every 10 years since Y2018 (which is unlikely because the economic growth rate is slowing down as it gets more developed), China’s GDP per capita will be around 31,075.34 — here is the most optimistic estimate.

5.Korea GDP per capita with an assumption of a modest annual growth of 2% will reach USD38,860.54 20 years later.

6.I think it will make more sense if one compare a large mega city in China ( like Shanghai, Shenzhen) to similar population of South Korea will be more appropriate measure.

20年内?#38752;?#23450;不可能。

1.无论中国能取得或者已取得多大成?#20572;?#19968;旦把这个数字除以14亿,都不可能?#19988;?#20010;很大的数字。

2.2017年韩国人均GDP为26152.03美元,中国为7329.09美元。韩国人均GDP是中国的3.56倍。

3.2012年,中国宣布到2020年,要在2010年人均GDP(4560.51美元)的基础上实现翻一番(即人均9121.02美元)。

4.假设从现在2018年到2038年,也就是20年后,中国的人均GDP每10年都实现翻倍(这是不可能的,因为中国经济越来越发展,增长速度逐渐放缓),中国的人均GDP将达到31075.34,这是最乐观的估计。

5.假设年增长率为2%,20年后,韩国的人均GDP将达到38860.54美元。

6.我认为,如果将中国的大城市(如上海、深圳)与韩国人口相似的城市进行比较,会更有意义。

 

Jeff Lee, Truth Seeker

Like Japan after World War II, China has gone from a nation of copycats of cheap consumer goods to innovators capable of building leading edge manufacturing plants. They resemble the potential of the USA in 1890, (a growing urban educated base, a new infrastructure, access to vast resources), capable of jumping 100 years of equivalent development in only 20 years.  In so doing, they will also grow a profitable consumer demand led economy, helping stabilizing it during any market downturn pressures experienced by the other developed economies. So, yes, I think China will likely outpace South Korea, but it may only get their in year 20.

与二战后的日本一样,中国已经从一个仿制廉价消费品的国家,变成了有能力建设具有领先优势的制造工厂的创新国家。她们表现除了1890年美国的潜力(城市教育基础、新的基础设施、庞大的资源总量不断增长),能够在短短20年内就实现100年的发展目标。通过这个方式,她们还将推动以消?#30740;?#27714;为主导的能赚钱的经济,在其它发达经济体遭遇市场低迷压力时帮助稳定经济。所以,是的,我认为中国很可能会超过韩国,但可能在20年后才会赶上他们。

 

Jalil Abdullayev, knows Korean

PPP gdp per capita of China is around 18000 while it is around 40000 for South Korea. So China needs to double its economy in 20 years. If current growth rate continues then China will more than exceed that.

However, South Korea economy also grows and it could grow by 50% over 20 years.

So I think China will not catch up in 20 years but it will come very close

中国的人均购买力平价GDP在18000左右,而韩国的人均购买力平价GDP在40000左右。因此,中国需要在20年内实现经济翻番?#24222;?#21487;能。如果目前的增长速度能够维持,那么中国将超过韩国。

然而,韩国的经济也在增长,在未来20年里可能会增长50%。

所以我认为中国在20年内赶不上韩国,但会非常接近。

 

Kai Lee

It's hard to happen. Unless South Korea is unified or war occurs. South Korea depends on the Chinese economy. Most of South Korea’s exports have gone to China. China's economic growth South Korea's economic growth. The Chinese economy has declined and the Korean economy has declined. China has too much population. But the first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai Shenzhou will surpass South Korea and even Seoul.

这种情况很难发生。除非两朝统一或者爆发战争。韩国依赖中国经济。韩国的大部分出口都流向了中国。中国的经济增长,则韩国的经济就增长。中国的经济下滑,则韩国经济下滑。中国人口太多了。但像?#26412;?#21644;上海这样的一线城市将超过韩国,甚至首尔。

 

William Hennigan, lived in China

No.

There certainly are some excellent rational answers below. But, there is a dramatic difference in culture and politics between Korea and China. Those factors will inhibit China. This is genuinely an apples to oranges situation.

Everyone always projects into the future using straight lines, but it never is a straight line - for anybody.

不可能。

后面肯定有一些很好的理?#28304;?#26696;。但是,韩国和中国在文化和政治上存在着巨大的差异。这些因素将制约中国。这确实?#19988;?#20010;截然不同的情况。

所有人都会用直线思维来预测未来,但对任何人来说,未来绝对不?#19988;?#26465;直线。

 

Richard Saw

Both not and yes .

not:The earth could not provide the west standard of the living for 1.4billions chinese .

yes:But china could bring the west standard of living down to the level of china .

GDP per capita would be the same,maybe china couldn't catch up with south korean,but china could bring the GDP per capita of korean down to the level of china .

?#37096;?#33021;,也不可能。

不可能?#19988;?#20026;:地球无力以西方的生活标准供养14亿中国人。

可能?#19988;?#20026;:中国可以把西方的生活水平降低到中国的水平。

人均GDP可能会一样,也许中国赶不上韩国,但是中国可以把韩国的人均GDP降到中国的水平。

 

Ewan Pan, M.S Enviromental Engineering, University of New South Wales (2020)

No.

The official proclaim says China will catch up with middle-class developed countries around 2050. And it is believed the “middle-class developed country” is Japan. South Korea will not be the target on this question, in several foreseeable decades.

不可能。

官方声明称,中国将在2050年左右赶上中产?#20934;?#21457;达国家。日本被认为是“中产?#20934;?#21457;达国家”。在可预见的几十年内,韩国不会成为这个问题的目标。

 

Joseph Boyle

The biggest cities might. Most provinces will not

最大的城市可能会赶上。大多数省份赶不上吧

 

Zimon Tom, studied Actuarial Science at University of New South Wales (2013)

Yes, there is a possibility that a war break out between South and North Korea and Seoul is happened to be nuked.

Even Korea peninsula is united peacefully. The per capita GDP are still higher than that of China.

是的,朝鲜和韩国之间爆发战争的可能性是存在的,而首尔恰好是可能?#32531;?#25915;击的。

甚至朝鲜半岛?#37096;?#33021;会?#25512;?#32479;一。人均国内生产总值仍然高于中国。

 

En Xiao

The main driver of Korea economy is the giants including Samsung, Hyundai etc. However, their products are mostly interleaved with China’s ones, including mobile, telecom equipment, and boat etc. Few years ago, Korea was leading in these most industries. However, China has been leaders in more and more of these industries than Korea. This trend is obvious and stable.

Moreover, China has a tremendous domestic market, which facilitates Chinese enterprises growing up. Korea enterprises also depends on China market largely. It’s not easy for Korea enterprises to compete with local ones.

Although there are statistic forecast indicates that in 20 years China GDP per capita may catch Korea. I would say, many factors indicate that China seems have more advantages.

韩国经济的主要驱动力是三?#24688;?#29616;代等巨头。然而,他们的产品大多与中国的产?#26041;?#32455;在一起,包括移动、电信设备、船舶等。几年前,韩国在这些行业中处于领先地位。但如今中国逐渐成为了这些行业中的领先者,超过了韩国。这一趋势是明显和稳定的。

此外,中国拥有巨大的国内市场,这有利于中国企业的成长。韩国企业也在很大程度上依赖中国市场。韩国企业要与中国本土企业竞争并不容易。

虽然有统计预测显示,20年后中国人均GDP可能赶超韩国。我想说,很多因素表明中国似乎拥有更多的优势。

 

Yi Tian, Guangdong at Senior Engineer

Korea's economy mainly depends on big consortia such as Samsung and LG, among which Samsung accounts for 30% of Korea's GDP. If Samsung fails in the competition in the next 20 years, it will be a terrible thing for Korea. There are 500 million farmers in China who need to turn to urban population. This is a great potential, and the release of this potential can make China's per capita increase a lot.

Now Korea's advantage over China is mainly in the electronics industry, but I don't know how long this advantage will last.

韩国经济主要依靠三星和LG等大财团,其中三星占韩国GDP的30%。如果三星在未来20年的市场竞争中折戟,对韩国来说将?#19988;?#20214;可怕的事情。中国有5亿农民需要进城。这?#19988;?#20010;巨大的潜力,?#22836;?#36825;个潜力可以使中国的人均增长很多。

现在韩国对中国的优势主要在电子产业,但我不知道这种优势还能?#20013;?#22810;久。

 

Shuo Yang, Coding peasant and civil economist

In 2005, China's GDP is only half of Japan's.

In 2013, China's GDP is nearly double of Japan's.

It means, in 8 years, China's GDP increases 4 times compared to Japans.

Now, China's GDP per capita is 6,959

Sout Korea is 25,975

IMF 2013 Data

so China's GDP per capita is more than 1/4 of Korea's

Then how long will it take for China's GDP to increase 4 times compared to Korea? I feel 20 years are defintely enough although China's growth is slowing down.

2005年,中国的GDP只有日本的一半。

2013年,中国GDP?#36127;?#26159;日本的两倍。

这意味着,在8年内,中国的GDP相对日本增长了4倍。

现在,中国的人均GDP是6959

韩国是25,975

这是国际货?#19968;?#37329;组织2013年的数据

如此看,中国的人均GDP超过韩国的四分之一

那么,与韩国相比,中国的GDP需要多长时间才能增长4倍?虽然中国的经济增长正在放缓,但我觉得20年的时间也绝对足够了。

 

David Meng, worked at China

Yes it may happen. But be frank GDP per capital doesn’t equal to the real living standard. Though I agree that China gdp per capital over s Korea is doubtful, I would say the living standards of Chinese people after 20 years probably are better than South Korea.

South Korea is a small place crowded with people and its culture is full of stress.

Believe me after 20 years, lots of South Korea young guys will seek opportunities in China especially those smartest ones as they could play on a much larger platform and win much more glorious victories in this arena. Not big deal, In history it always like this and China always welcomes smart Korean people, from Tang Dynasty to Ming dynasty.

是的,这是可能发生的。但坦率地说,人均GDP并不等于实际生活水平。虽然我同意中国人均GDP超过韩国的说法值得怀疑,但我想说,20年后中国人的生活水平可能比韩国要好。

韩国?#19988;?#20010;?#23548;?#30340;小国家,它的文化充满?#25628;?#21147;。

相信我,20年后,许多韩国年轻人将在中国寻?#19968;?#20250;,尤其是那些最聪明的人才,因为他们可以在一个更大的平台上展现才华,在这个舞台上赢得更辉煌的胜利。没什么大不了的,在历史上,从唐朝到明朝,中国一直欢迎聪明的韩国人。

 

Tian Tom, studied at Zhenjiang No.1 Senior High School (2019)

From my perspective, we should also pay attention to the Three major aspects mentioned below.

No. 1 predictable negative population growth in China

Although the government claimed that it won’t happend before 2050,the chances are that decline is inevitable around 2030. The smaller population base may improve the GDP per capita another way which is under the assumption that China can maintain its GDP growth with fewer people.

No.2 unpredictable exchange rate changes

Just think about the possibility that you predict the exchange rate in 2018 accurately 20 years ago .To be honest, it’s nearly impossible.

No.3 unpredictable outcome of the economic transition

The outcome directly decides whether China will find a way out of so-called “middle-income trap” and whether China will become a developed country one day or even surpass South Korea in GDP per capita.

In a nutshell ,it’s hard to foresee what it is look like after 20 years .Even ten years ago, there were quantities of people who believed China would never catch up with Japan in GDP. After all nothing is absolute.

在我看来,我们也应该注意下面提到的三个主要方面。

1.预计中国人口将出现负增长

尽管政府声称这在2050年之前不会发生,但在2030年左右下降的可能性是不可避免的。人口基数小了,人均GDP可能会提高,这是基于中国可以用更少的人口保持GDP增长的假设。

2.不可预测的汇?#26102;?#21270;

想想20年前你能对2018年汇率进行准确预测吗?说实话,这?#36127;?#26159;不可能的。

3.经济转型的不可预测结果

这一结果将直接决定中国能否走出所谓的“中等收入陷阱”,能否成为发达国家,超过韩国的人均GDP。

简而?#28798;?#24456;难预测20年后的中国会是什么样子,就在10年前,还有很多人认为中国的GDP永远赶不?#20808;?#26412;。毕竟没有什么事是绝对的。

 

Sol Pao, Assistant Professor at China University of Technology (2004-present)

I will say it’s a highly possible scenario.

Again, I will recommend this article first:$123,000,000,000,000*

The author Robert Fogel is “director of the Center for Population Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and winner of the 1993 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics.”

This article was published in 2010 - when China’s GDP was just one third of now. Remember that, and have a look on how those netizens criticize him. They laugh at the economist, say he must be a fool or something more mean. See what happened eight years on.

Then, see how President Trump do to smaller countries. Big country have a lot advantage to small one. Big country have bigger market and stronger army, and the small one can just bite the smaller pie after the big one was fulled. It’s the harsh reality, and it’s also the reason that makes European countries try to unite - if they could. When compared with the USA or USSR, those previous powers in Europe is just not big enough.

Now, even Germany is just like a province in China, and South Korea is more so, i.e.. Guangdong Province in southern China have twice her population and equal her GDP.

Now, not just Robert Fogel, but also Graham Allison, David Daokui Li, Justin Yifu Lin, and many others, also expect a Chinese GDP three times of the USA in 2040. China is beating South Korea in many industrial sectors, and I won’t see any possibility for Korea to escape it.

Biggest country grasps the highest, most profitable industries, like the USA did. China will also follow this way. This reality means a lot for smaller countries, but it’s the truth.

Yes, it’s also possible for some small countries to have a higher GDP than the biggest one, but it won’t be a question asked like this way.

我认为这是非常有可能的情况。

首先,我要推荐这篇文章:$ 123,000,000,000,000,000 *

作者罗伯特·福格尔是“芝加哥大学布斯商学院人口经济学中心主任,1993年?#24403;?#23572;经济学奖得主。”

这篇文章发表于2010年,当时中国的GDP只有现在的三分之一。记住这一点,看看那些网友是如?#38395;?#35780;他的。他们嘲笑这位经济学家,说他肯定是个傻瓜,甚至还有更难听的话。结果,我们看看8年后发生了什么。

再来看看特?#21183;?#24635;统是如何?#28304;?#27604;美国小的国家。大国相对小国有很多优势。大国有更大的市场,有更?#30475;?#30340;军队,小国只能在大国吃掉?#26696;?#21518;,尝点?#26696;?#23633;。这是残酷的现实,也是促使?#20998;?#22269;家试图团结起来的原因——如果他们真能做到的话。与美国和苏联相比,这些曾经的?#20998;?#24378;国还不够?#30475;蟆?/strong>

现在,就连德国也只像中国的一个省,韩国更是如此。中国南部的广东省的人口是其两倍,GDP与之相当。

现在,不仅罗伯特·福格尔,还有格雷厄姆·艾利森、李稻奎、林毅夫等许多人都预计,2040年中国的GDP将达到美国的三倍。中国在许多工业领域都打败了韩国,我认为韩国没有任何可能脱身。

最大的国家拥有最多、最赚钱的产业,就像美国一样。中国也将如此。这一现实对小国意义重大,但这就是事实。

是的,一些小国的GDP也有可能高于最大的国家,但跟这个问题没有关系。

外文链接:https://www.quora.com/Will-China-catch-up-with-South-Korea-in-GDP-per-capita-within-20-years

三泰虎原创译文,禁止转载!:首页 > 美国 » 中国人均GDP未来20年内能赶超韩国吗

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